Illinois State called 25 of the 68 teams that qualified for this year's NCAA Tournament -- more than one-third of the field -- and none would agree to play the Redbirds during the non-conference portion of the 2016-17 college basketball season.
Tomorrow, Illinois State will host a first-round game in the NIT as a No. 1 seed in college basketball's second-tier tournament. Despite a 27-6 record, including a 12-6 mark away from home, a No. 33 ranking in the RPI and being ranked No. 51 by KenPom.com, the Redbirds were among the dreaded First Four Out category, having the NCAA Tournament door shut in its face and being told the party is already at maximum capacity.
Such is the unfortunate reality of a good mid-major team that doesn't earn an auto-bid by winning its conference tournament and doesn't possess enough resume-boosting wins in the eyes of the Selection Committee. Illinois State largely took care of business for the majority of the season. Two of its losses came against Wichita State, which is currently ranked No. 8 in the country by KenPom.com, and two more were one-possession losses on the road in the first month of the season. The latter pair of losses were the Redbirds' only blemishes on their resume that came against teams -- Murray State and Tulsa -- ranked outside of the top-100 in the RPI. It's also worth mentioning both Murray State and Tulsa have been familiar faces in the NCAA Tournament, both being five-time participants since the turn of the century, so Illinois State scheduled those games against respectable opponents who perhaps underachieved this season.
The margin for error for a team like Illinois State is so small that the Redbirds had to either win their conference championship game or win the majority of the games it played against top-100 opponents. The former is a sneakily difficult task in a conference shared with programs of the caliber of Wichita State and Northern Iowa, and the latter is a challenge when power conference programs have no interest in playing Illinois State.
The Redbirds played six games against opponents ranked in the top-100 of the RPI and they went 2-4, winning both games at home and losing the rest at neutral or road environments. Could Illinois State have improved its case by winning more games against top competition? Of course. But its hands are tied when trying to produce a schedule capable of yielding a wealth of quality wins.
It's not just a matter of wins, but also opportunity. The Missouri Valley Conference was ranked 12th this year by conference RPI. Wichita State was Illinois State's only conference opponent ranked in the top-100 of the RPI and beating the Shockers once in three tries was probably the best-case scenario. With little opportunity to boost its resume in conference play, while also trying to avoid land mine losses against the cellar dwellers of the Missouri Valley, Illinois State is forced to rely on its non-conference schedule for marquee wins. But power conference teams have little incentive to schedule a non-conference game against Illinois State because the Redbirds are capable of beating a Power Five team on their home floor.
Illinois State would have more opportunities for quality wins if it played the schedule of an ACC or Big 12 team, and a power conference team would have more opportunities for bad losses if it played in the Missouri Valley.
Let's compare Illinois State's record against top-50 and top-100 opponents with some of the final at-large teams in the field:
Illinois State
vs. RPI Top 50: 1-2
vs. RPI 51-100: 1-2
Kansas State
vs. RPI Top 50: 4-9
vs. RPI 51-100: 2-2
Providence
vs. RPI Top 50: 6-8
vs. RPI 51-100: 2-1
USC
vs. RPI Top 50: 2-6
vs. RPI 51-100: 4-2
Wake Forest
vs. RPI Top 50: 3-9
vs. RPI 51-100: 5-4
Xavier
vs. RPI Top 50: 4-9
vs. RPI 51-100: 4-4
Illinois State's conference affiliation prevents it from having the opportunity or money to have as many top-50 and top-100 opponents on its schedule compared to power conference schools. Wake Forest played 12 games against top-50 opponents and won three times. Illinois State had three chances and won once. We can only extrapolate and project but it's reasonable to expect Illinois State to earn more quality wins if it had more opportunities.
Unless the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee changes its evaluation and selection process to reward high-achieving mid-majors over middling power conference teams, Illinois State is stuck in the limbo of being the second-best team in a one-bid league.
Illinois State coach Dan Muller expressed his frustration on Twitter on Monday. "ACC Big 10 Big 12 SEC PAC 12 BIG EAST. It's me again. Looking 4 home & home next year. Pls call me 4 chance 4 QUALITY road win, top 33 RPI," Muller tweeted, along with a bitmoji of himself alongside an hour glass that read "I'm waiting."
For maybe the first time ever, a college basketball game will be scheduled via Twitter. Ole Miss honorably took the bait, with Athletic Director Ross Bjork responding to Muller's tweet saying his school would love to play Illinois State. Good on Muller for expressing his frustration and good on Ole Miss for being willing to schedule a home-and-home series against a strong mid-major opponent.
It's a baby step towards fixing a system that is disadvantageous for programs like Illinois State, but it's a start.
Tomorrow, Illinois State will host a first-round game in the NIT as a No. 1 seed in college basketball's second-tier tournament. Despite a 27-6 record, including a 12-6 mark away from home, a No. 33 ranking in the RPI and being ranked No. 51 by KenPom.com, the Redbirds were among the dreaded First Four Out category, having the NCAA Tournament door shut in its face and being told the party is already at maximum capacity.
Such is the unfortunate reality of a good mid-major team that doesn't earn an auto-bid by winning its conference tournament and doesn't possess enough resume-boosting wins in the eyes of the Selection Committee. Illinois State largely took care of business for the majority of the season. Two of its losses came against Wichita State, which is currently ranked No. 8 in the country by KenPom.com, and two more were one-possession losses on the road in the first month of the season. The latter pair of losses were the Redbirds' only blemishes on their resume that came against teams -- Murray State and Tulsa -- ranked outside of the top-100 in the RPI. It's also worth mentioning both Murray State and Tulsa have been familiar faces in the NCAA Tournament, both being five-time participants since the turn of the century, so Illinois State scheduled those games against respectable opponents who perhaps underachieved this season.
The margin for error for a team like Illinois State is so small that the Redbirds had to either win their conference championship game or win the majority of the games it played against top-100 opponents. The former is a sneakily difficult task in a conference shared with programs of the caliber of Wichita State and Northern Iowa, and the latter is a challenge when power conference programs have no interest in playing Illinois State.
The Redbirds played six games against opponents ranked in the top-100 of the RPI and they went 2-4, winning both games at home and losing the rest at neutral or road environments. Could Illinois State have improved its case by winning more games against top competition? Of course. But its hands are tied when trying to produce a schedule capable of yielding a wealth of quality wins.
It's not just a matter of wins, but also opportunity. The Missouri Valley Conference was ranked 12th this year by conference RPI. Wichita State was Illinois State's only conference opponent ranked in the top-100 of the RPI and beating the Shockers once in three tries was probably the best-case scenario. With little opportunity to boost its resume in conference play, while also trying to avoid land mine losses against the cellar dwellers of the Missouri Valley, Illinois State is forced to rely on its non-conference schedule for marquee wins. But power conference teams have little incentive to schedule a non-conference game against Illinois State because the Redbirds are capable of beating a Power Five team on their home floor.
Illinois State would have more opportunities for quality wins if it played the schedule of an ACC or Big 12 team, and a power conference team would have more opportunities for bad losses if it played in the Missouri Valley.
Let's compare Illinois State's record against top-50 and top-100 opponents with some of the final at-large teams in the field:
Illinois State
vs. RPI Top 50: 1-2
vs. RPI 51-100: 1-2
Kansas State
vs. RPI Top 50: 4-9
vs. RPI 51-100: 2-2
Providence
vs. RPI Top 50: 6-8
vs. RPI 51-100: 2-1
USC
vs. RPI Top 50: 2-6
vs. RPI 51-100: 4-2
Wake Forest
vs. RPI Top 50: 3-9
vs. RPI 51-100: 5-4
Xavier
vs. RPI Top 50: 4-9
vs. RPI 51-100: 4-4
Illinois State's conference affiliation prevents it from having the opportunity or money to have as many top-50 and top-100 opponents on its schedule compared to power conference schools. Wake Forest played 12 games against top-50 opponents and won three times. Illinois State had three chances and won once. We can only extrapolate and project but it's reasonable to expect Illinois State to earn more quality wins if it had more opportunities.
Unless the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee changes its evaluation and selection process to reward high-achieving mid-majors over middling power conference teams, Illinois State is stuck in the limbo of being the second-best team in a one-bid league.
Illinois State coach Dan Muller expressed his frustration on Twitter on Monday. "ACC Big 10 Big 12 SEC PAC 12 BIG EAST. It's me again. Looking 4 home & home next year. Pls call me 4 chance 4 QUALITY road win, top 33 RPI," Muller tweeted, along with a bitmoji of himself alongside an hour glass that read "I'm waiting."
For maybe the first time ever, a college basketball game will be scheduled via Twitter. Ole Miss honorably took the bait, with Athletic Director Ross Bjork responding to Muller's tweet saying his school would love to play Illinois State. Good on Muller for expressing his frustration and good on Ole Miss for being willing to schedule a home-and-home series against a strong mid-major opponent.
It's a baby step towards fixing a system that is disadvantageous for programs like Illinois State, but it's a start.