If the college basketball season ended today, Kansas and North Carolina would finish the season in the top 10 of the AP Top 25 poll, checking in at No. 3 and No. 10, respectively.
That would give Indiana a pair of wins over top-10 teams this season but as of Monday, Bracket Matrix -- a website that compiles and averages the latest NCAA tournament projections from across the Internet -- slots the Hoosiers among the "First Four Out." Of the 33 brackets that were updated on Monday, one day after Indiana's 75-63 home loss to Michigan, only three included the Hoosiers in the field.
As more mock brackets are updated, it's safe to assume Indiana will slide further on the wrong side of the bubble, which is somewhat surprising considering the pair of wins the Hoosiers have in their back pocket.
Over the past 10 seasons -- from the 2006-07 campaign to 2015-16 -- Division I college basketball teams that have defeated at least two opponents that finished in the top 10 of the final AP Top 25 poll before the start of NCAA tournament play have made the NCAA tournament 87.9 percent of the time. Ninety-one teams have registered at least a pair of such wins in a season during that span and 80 of them made the Big Dance, entering with an average seed of 4.2.
On average, roughly one team per season has failed to make the NCAA tournament in the past decade despite having defeated at least two teams that are ranked in the top 10 when the tournament starts. The teams that have failed to qualify for the NCAA tournament are listed below.
2015-16 - Virginia Tech - 19-14 (10-8)
2014-15 - Kansas State - 15-17 (8-10)
2013-14 - West Virginia - 17-15 (9-9)
2011-12 - Illinois - 17-15 (6-12)
2011-12 - Miami (FL) - 19-12 (9-7)
2010-11 - Minnesota - 17-14 (6-12)
2009-10 - UConn - 17-15 (7-11)
2008-09 - Georgetown - 16-14 (7-11)
2006-07 - California - 16-17 (6-12)
2006-07 - LSU - 17-15 (5-11)
2006-07 - Washington - 19-13 (8-10)
Those 11 teams have averaged 17.1 total wins and 7.4 conference wins while falling short of reaching the tournament. Indiana is projected to finish the regular season 17-14 overall and 7-11 in the Big Ten, according to kenpom.com.
Of course, Indiana has been short-handed since beating Kansas and North Carolina. OG Anunoby is out for the season after suffering an injury at Penn State, and James Blackmon Jr. and Juwan Morgan have missed time due to injuries. Several other players have been banged up this season.
However, assuming Indiana continues on its current trajectory of missing the NCAA tournament, the Hoosiers' resume will have suffered a historic collapse. Of the 11 teams in the previous 10 years that have picked up the requisite wins described above and missed the tournament, eight beat two opponents that appeared in the top 10 (at the conclusion of their respective conference tournaments) during conference play. The other three picked up one win in non-conference play and one during their league slate.
LSU, Georgetown and Minnesota each picked up one end-of-season-top-10 win during their non-conference schedules in 2006, 2009 and 2010, respectively.
Wins over Kansas and North Carolina will weigh favorably for the Hoosiers but as of now, not enough to make up for Indiana's weak non-conference strength of schedule and its overall lack of quality wins.
That would give Indiana a pair of wins over top-10 teams this season but as of Monday, Bracket Matrix -- a website that compiles and averages the latest NCAA tournament projections from across the Internet -- slots the Hoosiers among the "First Four Out." Of the 33 brackets that were updated on Monday, one day after Indiana's 75-63 home loss to Michigan, only three included the Hoosiers in the field.
As more mock brackets are updated, it's safe to assume Indiana will slide further on the wrong side of the bubble, which is somewhat surprising considering the pair of wins the Hoosiers have in their back pocket.
Over the past 10 seasons -- from the 2006-07 campaign to 2015-16 -- Division I college basketball teams that have defeated at least two opponents that finished in the top 10 of the final AP Top 25 poll before the start of NCAA tournament play have made the NCAA tournament 87.9 percent of the time. Ninety-one teams have registered at least a pair of such wins in a season during that span and 80 of them made the Big Dance, entering with an average seed of 4.2.
On average, roughly one team per season has failed to make the NCAA tournament in the past decade despite having defeated at least two teams that are ranked in the top 10 when the tournament starts. The teams that have failed to qualify for the NCAA tournament are listed below.
2015-16 - Virginia Tech - 19-14 (10-8)
2014-15 - Kansas State - 15-17 (8-10)
2013-14 - West Virginia - 17-15 (9-9)
2011-12 - Illinois - 17-15 (6-12)
2011-12 - Miami (FL) - 19-12 (9-7)
2010-11 - Minnesota - 17-14 (6-12)
2009-10 - UConn - 17-15 (7-11)
2008-09 - Georgetown - 16-14 (7-11)
2006-07 - California - 16-17 (6-12)
2006-07 - LSU - 17-15 (5-11)
2006-07 - Washington - 19-13 (8-10)
Those 11 teams have averaged 17.1 total wins and 7.4 conference wins while falling short of reaching the tournament. Indiana is projected to finish the regular season 17-14 overall and 7-11 in the Big Ten, according to kenpom.com.
Of course, Indiana has been short-handed since beating Kansas and North Carolina. OG Anunoby is out for the season after suffering an injury at Penn State, and James Blackmon Jr. and Juwan Morgan have missed time due to injuries. Several other players have been banged up this season.
However, assuming Indiana continues on its current trajectory of missing the NCAA tournament, the Hoosiers' resume will have suffered a historic collapse. Of the 11 teams in the previous 10 years that have picked up the requisite wins described above and missed the tournament, eight beat two opponents that appeared in the top 10 (at the conclusion of their respective conference tournaments) during conference play. The other three picked up one win in non-conference play and one during their league slate.
LSU, Georgetown and Minnesota each picked up one end-of-season-top-10 win during their non-conference schedules in 2006, 2009 and 2010, respectively.
Wins over Kansas and North Carolina will weigh favorably for the Hoosiers but as of now, not enough to make up for Indiana's weak non-conference strength of schedule and its overall lack of quality wins.